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Malaysia Bond and Sukuk: Quarterly Report 3Q2024


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BIX Malaysia - Quarterly Report 3Q 2024

3Q2024 – Malaysia’s bond and sukuk remained volatile amid US Fed rate cut
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) initiated its rate easing cycle with an outsized 50 basis points (bps) cut to a range between 4.75% to 5.00% on 18 Sept’ 24, in view of the softening inflationary data and weakening labour market condition. Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) yields changed on quarter-to-quarter as MGS 10-year closed at 3.71%, declined by 15bps in September. As yield movements tend to align with United States Treasury yields, MGS yields are expected to decline if there are further additional rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve,1. with BNM expecting to keep its benchmark interest rate at 3.00%.

GLOBAL MARKET
Overview

US Treasury 3-year yields declined by 94 bps q-o-q while the benchmark 10-year Treasury notes decreased by 55 bps q-o-q. The retreat of yields were attributed by the Fed’s decision to slash interest rates by 50 basis points comes amid a week full of central bank rate decisions.


MY Government Bond
Overview

The MGS yields experienced a quarterly dip, with the 3-year and 10-year dropped by 19 basis points and 15 basis points, respectively. The GII also fell by 14 basis points for the 3-year and by 12 basis points for the 10-year. The decline of MGS and GII yield were influenced by US fed rate cut and partly attributed to favorable domestic conditions, including stable unemployment rates, robust retail sales, and strong IPI data.



MY Corporate Bond & Sukuk
Overview

The AAA-rated corporate bond and Sukuk yields saw improvement throughout the second quarter of 2024. The yields dropped by 7 bps and 12 bps for 3-year and 10-year while both 5-year and 7-year declined by 8bps.
3Q24 Market Overview
 


Reference: 1. MIDF Research 

GOVERNMENT BOND AUCTION
Overview
 
The government bond auction for 3Q24 garnered an average BTC of 2.318x, a slight drop from the previous quarter (2Q24: 2.477x). A reopening of MGII 7/29 received the highest BTC at 3.683x. The new/reopening issuances for MGS/GII stood at RM42.00 billion (2Q24: RM39.5 billion). 

As of September 2024, the outstanding amount of MGS/GII stood at RM1,193.64 billion (2Q24: RM1,177.66 billion). The market has demonstrated resilience, buoyed by a positive outlook as global bond markets have rebounded following a slowdown in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. In July, foreign investors poured RM5.5 billion into Malaysian bonds, marking the largest monthly inflow in a year, according to data from BNM.

3Q24 AUCTION
3Q24 Government Bond Auction
Source BNM and BIX Malaysia
 
For the upcoming 4Q24, there will be zero (0) new issue and four (4) reopening of MGS. For GII there will be four (4) reopening and zero (0) new issue, totalling to eight (8) reopening.

UPCOMING ISSUANCE 4Q24
3Q24 Government Bond Upcoming Issuance
Source BNM and BIX Malaysia
 

FOREIGN HOLDINGS OF MGS AND GII
Overview 

The foreign net flow to MGS and GII in 3Q24 amounted to RM6.54 billion, RM6.95 billion and –RM0.34 billion respectively in July, August and September as foreign investors turned net buyer. As of September 2024, the total foreign holdings of MGS and GII stood at RM269.22 billion (June 2024: RM256.08 billion), 5.13% increase from the previous quarter. 

3Q24 Foreign Holdings of MGS and GII
Source BNM

3Q24 Cumulative  Net Foreign Flow to MGS and GII
Source BNM

CORPORATE BOND & SUKUK
Overview 
RM49.57 billion corporate bonds and sukuk were issued in 3Q24 (2Q24: RM42.41 billion), 16.88 % increase from the previous quarter. The non-rated bonds and sukuk were the most issued at RM14.85 billion issuances, followed by AA2/AA/P1/M1 rated bonds at RM13.25 billion issuances.

For 3Q24, the largest corporate issuances were issued by CIMB ISLAMIC BANK BERHAD, CIMBI IMTN 4.070% 30.07.2035 - Series 4 Tranche 3 of RM2.17 billion.

ISSUANCE 3Q24

3Q24 Corporate Bond Issuance

RATING OUTLOOK
 
There was zero (0) default and zero (0) downgraded recorded in 3Q24. However, there are four (4) upgraded bonds/sukuk in this quarter. 

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  1. Evyap Sabun Malaysia Sdn Bhd
  2. MEX I Capital Berhad
  3. DRB-Hicom Berhad
  4. Exsim Capital Resources Berhad
 

3Q24 Rating Movements
Source: MARC, RAM and BIX Malaysia


BOND STATISTICS
Overview 

Outstanding Amount by Bond Classes
 

As of September 2024, the outstanding amount of the Malaysian bond market stood at RM2.082 trillion, increased by 0.88% compared to the end of 2Q24 (June 2024: RM2.064 trillion). The largest outstanding bonds were from government issuances which consist of 58.24% of total issuances at RM1.213 trillion, followed by corporate issuances of 25.12% at RM523.14 billion, and Quasi-government issuances of 16.64% at RM346.45 billion.

3Q24 Outstanding Amount by Bond Class
Source: BNM and BIX Malaysia
 
BOND STATISTICS
Overview 

Outstanding Amount by Principal and Bond Classes
 
As of September 2024, the outstanding amount of the Government conventional bond and the Government Islamic Bond (Sukuk) stood at RM623.34 billion and RM589.30 billion, respectively. The conventional Quasi-govt outstanding amount stood at RM21.83 billion, much smaller compared to its Islamic counterpart that stood at RM324.62 billion. For corporate issuances, the conventional bond outstanding amounted RM114.04 billion while the corporate Sukuk was recorded higher at RM409.09 billion.

3Q24 Outstanding Amount by Principal and Bond Classes
Source: BNM and BIX Malaysia

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Disclaimer

This report has been prepared and issued by Bond and Sukuk Information Platform Sdn Bhd (“the Company”). The information provided in this report is of a general nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is not intended to constitute research or as advice for any investor. The information in this report is not and should not be construed or considered as an offer, recommendation or solicitation for investments. Investors are advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and should seek appropriate personalized financial advice from a qualified professional to suit individual circumstances and risk profile.

The information contained in this report is prepared from data believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issuance of this report. While every effort is made to ensure the information is up-to-date and correct, the Company does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness of any such information contained in this report and accordingly, neither the Company nor any of its affiliates nor its related persons shall not be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance thereon or usage thereof.