BIX ARTICLE
The Road to Recovery of the Malaysian Ringgit Bond Market in View of the COVID-19 Pandemic Response
Nov 10, 2021
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13 min read
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| 1 Introduction |
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has wreaked havoc globally since the beginning of 2020. Malaysia then ended the year 2020 with daily COVID-19 cases of 2,525. Recently, Malaysia has reached its highest peak with daily confirmed cases of over 20,000 in August 2021. The Malaysian Government had initiated several relief measures for individuals and businesses affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in hopes of cushioning the impact on the economy, including the financial market. In view of this response, what can be anticipated from the bond market vis-à-vis the rapidly evolving pandemic crisis?
In this research paper, we will be discussing the implications on the Malaysian bond market given the COVID-19 pandemic responses implemented in Malaysia and other countries such as the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK). We will also be looking at the implications from the economic and monetary policy perspectives. Prior to that, we will provide an overview of the current situation and analyse how it affects the bond market.
| 2 COVID-19 Pandemic Fiscal Response in Malaysia |
In light of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, the Malaysian Government imposed various movement control order (MCO) measures, such as prohibiting mass assembly nationwide, closure of the Malaysian borders, closure of businesses and industries excluding essential services, amongst others. The government had also implemented several economic stimulus packages, as follows:
- PRIHATIN Rakyat Economic Stimulus Package MYR 260 billion
- PENJANA MYR 35 billion
- PERMAI MYR 15 billion
- PEMERKASA MYR 20 billion
- PEMERKASA+ MYR 40 billion
- PEMULIH MYR 150 billion
Furthermore, Malaysia officially began the National COVID-19 Immunisation Programme at the end of February 2021 with its highest daily vaccination rate surpassing 500,000 doses at one point in time, and is currently enroute to fully vaccinate 100% of its adult population in October 2021.
In this section, we will explore the different approaches undertaken by some other countries, such as the UK and US, in handling the pandemic outbreak and how their approaches can be applicable to Malaysia.
3.1 United Kingdom (UK)
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had announced the removal of all its remaining COVID-19 restrictions including limits on social distancing and mandated mask-wearing on 19 July 2021 despite a surge in cases caused by the spread of the highly infectious Delta variant. While most have criticised the move as it will further increase the infection rate, those who defended the move said that “there are more damaging consequences, from the impact on the economy and livelihoods to mental health.”
In view of this, Malaysia has seemingly adopted a similar path as the UK in relaxing all lockdown restrictions, but continue the practice of social distancing and mandatory mask-wearing. Some market players have also shared that the virus should be treated as an endemic and open up the entire economy immediately as the country may face a very significant downturn and even a recession if the lockdown measures remained.
3.2 United States (US)
Meanwhile, in the US, health officials are providing an additional booster shot to any adult who had already received a two-dose vaccine eight months after their second dose as recent data shows a reduction in the vaccination effectiveness against the virus over time. The third shot was essentially recommended for those who are “moderately to severely immunocompromised”.
In view of this, Malaysia is also working towards procuring these booster shots to catalyse the road to immunising as many people as possible and before supply runs out. However, Health Ministry Director-General Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah shared that the third shot will not reduce the transmission of the highly contagious Delta variant. As at point of writing, 90.4% of the Malaysian adult population have been fully vaccinated and the government had decided to roll out a third dose of COVID-19 booster shots for high-risk groups in the month of October. The government had also decided to adopt the heterologous or mix-and-match approach where a different vaccine can “be administered as the booster dose and not necessarily using the same vaccine which the individual was given during vaccination”.
4.1 Malaysian Government Securities and Government Islamic Issue (MGS/GII)
.PNG "Gross Issuance of MGS/GII and Further Insight Comparison between 1H2020 and 1H2021")
Source: Bond Pricing Agency Malaysia (BPAM)
Chart 4.1 Gross Issuance of MGS/GII and Further Insight Comparison between 1H2020 and 1H2021
As seen in Chart 4.1, the gross issuance of MGS/GII registered a total amount of MYR 148.8 billion for the year 2020. The 28.6% increase from 2019 was mainly due to the direct fiscal injection and the widening of the fiscal deficit due to a shortfall in the government revenue in light of the low global crude oil prices.
In 1H2021, the gross issuance of MGS/GII registered a total amounting to MYR 80.5 billion as compared to MYR 77.8 billion in 1H2020, considering the resurgence in positive COVID-19 cases, thus requiring more fiscal support followed by the re-tightening of lockdown measures.
Generally, the market expects the gross issuance of MGS/GII for 2021 to reach between MYR 160 billion and MYR 180 billion, which would be the highest recorded annual gross issuance amount. The expected amount may further expand if the pandemic turns for the worse as the government may be required to issue more relief measures.
Although the MGS/GII issuance has been abundant in growth amidst the pandemic outbreak, there may also be concerns over the Malaysian Government’s high debt level. In light of this, Finance Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Utama Zafrul had decided to raise the statutory debt limit to 65% as the Debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio may further increase, breaching the current limit of 60% of the GDP at the end of 2021. As at point of writing, the Temporary Measures for Government Financing (Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19)) (Amendment) Bill 2021, which includes the increase in the new debt limit until 31 December 2022, has been passed by a voice vote in the Dewan Rakyat and will next head to the senate.
4.2 RF BPAM All Bond Index
Source: BPAM
Chart 4.2 RF BPAM All Bond Index
As seen on Chart 4.2, the Ringgit bond market performance, as measured by the RF BPAM All Bond Index, was at its lowest at 174.325 points towards the end of March 2020 when the World Health Organisation declared the novel coronavirus a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. The index eventually recovered in May 2020 to close at 184.714 points after the government implemented lockdown measures and announced several economic stimulus packages. The index increased again in July 2020 after Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) made its fourth cut in the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) to 1.75% in that same month. Since then, the index hovered between 185 and 190 points until February 2021.
By the end of March 2021, the index had fallen to 182.496 points from 185.147 points in February 2021. The drop was due to the sudden resurgence in daily COVID-19 cases. The index then recovered slightly from then onwards, steadily rising despite the spike in COVID-19 cases over the same period.
4.3 Rating Movements
Source: BPAM, RAM, MARC
Chart 4.3 Rating Movements
In view of the rise in COVID-19 cases in Malaysia, tighter restrictions were imposed on factories and non-essential sectors, therefore limiting general productions and operations. Consequently, several industries’ performances were dampened and cash flows were greatly reduced which inevitably put downward pressure on ratings of bond issuers in these industries. Based on Chart 4.3, some minor impacts of these restrictions were seen on the rating movements in 2020, during which there were a total of 5 downgrades. For the year 2021, the effect of the pandemic and lockdowns became even more apparent as downgrades have reached a total of 9 even as of 3Q2021. The most glaring effect of the pandemic came to light in 1Q2021 during which 6 issuers were downgraded, including MEX I Capital Berhad and Alpha Circle Sdn Bhd, as compared to only 1 in the corresponding quarter last year.
Some businesses which proved to be more resilient despite the movement restrictions imposed, resulted in a higher number of upgrades for the year through to 3Q2021 of 6 vis-à-vis the 4 upgrades seen in 2020.
5.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)
Chart 5.1.1 Annual GDP Growth in Malaysia
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM)
Chart 5.1.2 Y-O-Y Change (%) in Quarterly GDP Growth Rate in Malaysia
On the economic front, the economic growth in Malaysia, as measured by the GDP, experienced a contraction of 5.6% in 2020 as illustrated in Chart 5.1 as most economic activities were affected by the lockdown restrictions. Despite that, the GDP performed better than the initial projection by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank (-5.8%) and Asian Development Bank (-6%).
As seen in Chart 5.1.2, Malaysia slowly made its recovery in 1Q2021 with a year-on-year (YOY) GDP of -0.5% and rebounded strongly in 2Q2021 as it expanded by 16.1% YOY, indicating “continued recovery trajectory” as reported by BNM and the Department of Statistics Malaysia. However, the strong growth was mainly due to the low base recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Looking forward, the path of the economic growth in Malaysia would be determined based on the timing of the easing of the lockdown restrictions. As of now, the GDP forecast for 2021 is 4.2%, which was a downward revision from 5.1% considering the impact of the intermittent movement control orders implemented by the Malaysian Government during the year. In spite of that, some market players expect the economic growth recovery to accelerate as we approach 2022, in line with the rise in global growth and trade activities, which are key drivers for the domestic economic activities.
5.2 Inflation
-vs-Real-Interest-Rate.PNG "Consumer Price Index (YOY) vs Real Interest Rate in Malaysia")
Source: BPAM, DOSM
Chart 5.2 Consumer Price Index (YOY) vs Real Interest Rate in Malaysia
As shown in Chart 5.2, Malaysia experienced a deflation of 0.2% YOY as indicated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March 2020 and a further decline to -2.9% YOY in both April and May 2020. The drop in CPI was mainly due to the fall in the transportation index following the substantially lower global crude oil prices amidst the pandemic outbreak. Thereafter, the CPI remained in contraction until the end of 2020 due to lower global demand.
In February 2021, the CPI finally registered a positive growth of 0.1% YOY after being in the negative slums for almost a year since the declaration of the pandemic outbreak. This was followed by a steep rise in April 2021 to 4.7% YOY, which resulted in a drop in the real interest rate to -2.95%. The sharp increase in CPI was mainly contributed by the rise in global crude oil prices as global demand recovers.
Looking ahead, most economists expect the inflation rate to normalise to 2.5% in 2021, which would be in line with better economic prospects and higher crude oil prices. However, some market players also believe that the higher forecasted inflation rate would mainly be due to the low base effect, given the deflation rate of 1.1% in 2020.
6.1 Overnight Policy Rate (OPR)
From the perspective of the monetary policy, BNM had reduced the OPR four times by a total of 125 basis points from 3% to 1.75% since the start of the novel coronavirus outbreak in January 2020. The last OPR cut made on 7 July 2020 to 1.75% was the lowest level since the global financial crisis in mid-2007 to early 2009, as both global and domestic economic growth faced downside risks. From then onwards, the OPR has been maintained at 1.75% as the Monetary Policy Committee stated that the current degree of monetary accommodativeness remains consistent with the intended policy stance despite the recent resurgence in COVID-19 cases and stricter containment measures.
In hindsight, the likelihood of BNM further slashing the OPR would depend on the economic growth recovery rate in Malaysia. At present, BNM has not hinted in that direction and shared that “recent financial market volatility has somewhat receded, and financial conditions remain supportive of growth”. However, they added that the recovery trajectory in some economies could be disrupted if there was a re-tightening of containment measures. The current interest rate is in line with market consensus as it is sufficient to accommodate the economic recovery as further cuts in interest rates are not likely to help stimulate the economy due to inflationary pressures.
6.2 Statutory Reserve Requirement (SRR) Ratio
BNM had also made the decision to cut the SRR ratio by 100 basis points from 3% to 2% in March 2020 due to the pandemic outbreak to ensure sufficient liquidity in the domestic financial system. A lower SRR generally means that a lower amount would be put away with the central bank, leading to more excess funds from reserves to be used for lending purposes, thus creating credit. Furthermore, each Principal Dealer will be able to recognise MGS/GII issues of up to MYR 1 billion as part of the SRR compliance. In short, BNM expected approximately MYR 30 billion worth of liquidity to be injected into the domestic financial system from the combined measures.
All in all, although the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic had dampened the Malaysian economy, the domestic bond market managed to remain resilient as seen from the continuous expansion of the RF BPAM All Bond Index even after experiencing two significant declines in March 2020 and March 2021 as well as the robust MGS/GII supply. In time, Malaysia’s road to recovery is imminent as lockdown measures unwind, thus allowing the economy to run its natural course while the nation adapts to safely coexist with the novel coronavirus.
Source: BPAM: The Road to Recovery of the Malaysian Ringgit Bond Market in View of the COVID-19 Pandemic Response (2021, 12 October. BPAM MARKET AND PRODUCT RESEARCH. Retrieved from https://bpam.com.my/research-files/RSC01
Disclaimer| 3 COVID-19 Pandemic Fiscal Response in Other Countries |
In this section, we will explore the different approaches undertaken by some other countries, such as the UK and US, in handling the pandemic outbreak and how their approaches can be applicable to Malaysia.
3.1 United Kingdom (UK)
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had announced the removal of all its remaining COVID-19 restrictions including limits on social distancing and mandated mask-wearing on 19 July 2021 despite a surge in cases caused by the spread of the highly infectious Delta variant. While most have criticised the move as it will further increase the infection rate, those who defended the move said that “there are more damaging consequences, from the impact on the economy and livelihoods to mental health.”
In view of this, Malaysia has seemingly adopted a similar path as the UK in relaxing all lockdown restrictions, but continue the practice of social distancing and mandatory mask-wearing. Some market players have also shared that the virus should be treated as an endemic and open up the entire economy immediately as the country may face a very significant downturn and even a recession if the lockdown measures remained.
3.2 United States (US)
Meanwhile, in the US, health officials are providing an additional booster shot to any adult who had already received a two-dose vaccine eight months after their second dose as recent data shows a reduction in the vaccination effectiveness against the virus over time. The third shot was essentially recommended for those who are “moderately to severely immunocompromised”.
In view of this, Malaysia is also working towards procuring these booster shots to catalyse the road to immunising as many people as possible and before supply runs out. However, Health Ministry Director-General Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah shared that the third shot will not reduce the transmission of the highly contagious Delta variant. As at point of writing, 90.4% of the Malaysian adult population have been fully vaccinated and the government had decided to roll out a third dose of COVID-19 booster shots for high-risk groups in the month of October. The government had also decided to adopt the heterologous or mix-and-match approach where a different vaccine can “be administered as the booster dose and not necessarily using the same vaccine which the individual was given during vaccination”.
| 4 Implications on the Malaysian Bond Market |
4.1 Malaysian Government Securities and Government Islamic Issue (MGS/GII)
Source: Bond Pricing Agency Malaysia (BPAM)Chart 4.1 Gross Issuance of MGS/GII and Further Insight Comparison between 1H2020 and 1H2021
As seen in Chart 4.1, the gross issuance of MGS/GII registered a total amount of MYR 148.8 billion for the year 2020. The 28.6% increase from 2019 was mainly due to the direct fiscal injection and the widening of the fiscal deficit due to a shortfall in the government revenue in light of the low global crude oil prices.
In 1H2021, the gross issuance of MGS/GII registered a total amounting to MYR 80.5 billion as compared to MYR 77.8 billion in 1H2020, considering the resurgence in positive COVID-19 cases, thus requiring more fiscal support followed by the re-tightening of lockdown measures.
Generally, the market expects the gross issuance of MGS/GII for 2021 to reach between MYR 160 billion and MYR 180 billion, which would be the highest recorded annual gross issuance amount. The expected amount may further expand if the pandemic turns for the worse as the government may be required to issue more relief measures.
Although the MGS/GII issuance has been abundant in growth amidst the pandemic outbreak, there may also be concerns over the Malaysian Government’s high debt level. In light of this, Finance Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Utama Zafrul had decided to raise the statutory debt limit to 65% as the Debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio may further increase, breaching the current limit of 60% of the GDP at the end of 2021. As at point of writing, the Temporary Measures for Government Financing (Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19)) (Amendment) Bill 2021, which includes the increase in the new debt limit until 31 December 2022, has been passed by a voice vote in the Dewan Rakyat and will next head to the senate.
4.2 RF BPAM All Bond Index
Source: BPAMChart 4.2 RF BPAM All Bond Index
As seen on Chart 4.2, the Ringgit bond market performance, as measured by the RF BPAM All Bond Index, was at its lowest at 174.325 points towards the end of March 2020 when the World Health Organisation declared the novel coronavirus a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. The index eventually recovered in May 2020 to close at 184.714 points after the government implemented lockdown measures and announced several economic stimulus packages. The index increased again in July 2020 after Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) made its fourth cut in the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) to 1.75% in that same month. Since then, the index hovered between 185 and 190 points until February 2021.
By the end of March 2021, the index had fallen to 182.496 points from 185.147 points in February 2021. The drop was due to the sudden resurgence in daily COVID-19 cases. The index then recovered slightly from then onwards, steadily rising despite the spike in COVID-19 cases over the same period.
4.3 Rating Movements
Source: BPAM, RAM, MARC
Chart 4.3 Rating Movements
In view of the rise in COVID-19 cases in Malaysia, tighter restrictions were imposed on factories and non-essential sectors, therefore limiting general productions and operations. Consequently, several industries’ performances were dampened and cash flows were greatly reduced which inevitably put downward pressure on ratings of bond issuers in these industries. Based on Chart 4.3, some minor impacts of these restrictions were seen on the rating movements in 2020, during which there were a total of 5 downgrades. For the year 2021, the effect of the pandemic and lockdowns became even more apparent as downgrades have reached a total of 9 even as of 3Q2021. The most glaring effect of the pandemic came to light in 1Q2021 during which 6 issuers were downgraded, including MEX I Capital Berhad and Alpha Circle Sdn Bhd, as compared to only 1 in the corresponding quarter last year.
Some businesses which proved to be more resilient despite the movement restrictions imposed, resulted in a higher number of upgrades for the year through to 3Q2021 of 6 vis-à-vis the 4 upgrades seen in 2020.
| 5 Implications from the Economic Perspective |
5.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)Chart 5.1.1 Annual GDP Growth in Malaysia
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM)Chart 5.1.2 Y-O-Y Change (%) in Quarterly GDP Growth Rate in Malaysia
On the economic front, the economic growth in Malaysia, as measured by the GDP, experienced a contraction of 5.6% in 2020 as illustrated in Chart 5.1 as most economic activities were affected by the lockdown restrictions. Despite that, the GDP performed better than the initial projection by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank (-5.8%) and Asian Development Bank (-6%).
As seen in Chart 5.1.2, Malaysia slowly made its recovery in 1Q2021 with a year-on-year (YOY) GDP of -0.5% and rebounded strongly in 2Q2021 as it expanded by 16.1% YOY, indicating “continued recovery trajectory” as reported by BNM and the Department of Statistics Malaysia. However, the strong growth was mainly due to the low base recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Looking forward, the path of the economic growth in Malaysia would be determined based on the timing of the easing of the lockdown restrictions. As of now, the GDP forecast for 2021 is 4.2%, which was a downward revision from 5.1% considering the impact of the intermittent movement control orders implemented by the Malaysian Government during the year. In spite of that, some market players expect the economic growth recovery to accelerate as we approach 2022, in line with the rise in global growth and trade activities, which are key drivers for the domestic economic activities.
5.2 Inflation
Source: BPAM, DOSMChart 5.2 Consumer Price Index (YOY) vs Real Interest Rate in Malaysia
As shown in Chart 5.2, Malaysia experienced a deflation of 0.2% YOY as indicated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March 2020 and a further decline to -2.9% YOY in both April and May 2020. The drop in CPI was mainly due to the fall in the transportation index following the substantially lower global crude oil prices amidst the pandemic outbreak. Thereafter, the CPI remained in contraction until the end of 2020 due to lower global demand.
In February 2021, the CPI finally registered a positive growth of 0.1% YOY after being in the negative slums for almost a year since the declaration of the pandemic outbreak. This was followed by a steep rise in April 2021 to 4.7% YOY, which resulted in a drop in the real interest rate to -2.95%. The sharp increase in CPI was mainly contributed by the rise in global crude oil prices as global demand recovers.
Looking ahead, most economists expect the inflation rate to normalise to 2.5% in 2021, which would be in line with better economic prospects and higher crude oil prices. However, some market players also believe that the higher forecasted inflation rate would mainly be due to the low base effect, given the deflation rate of 1.1% in 2020.
| 6 Implications from the Monetary Policy Perspective |
6.1 Overnight Policy Rate (OPR)
From the perspective of the monetary policy, BNM had reduced the OPR four times by a total of 125 basis points from 3% to 1.75% since the start of the novel coronavirus outbreak in January 2020. The last OPR cut made on 7 July 2020 to 1.75% was the lowest level since the global financial crisis in mid-2007 to early 2009, as both global and domestic economic growth faced downside risks. From then onwards, the OPR has been maintained at 1.75% as the Monetary Policy Committee stated that the current degree of monetary accommodativeness remains consistent with the intended policy stance despite the recent resurgence in COVID-19 cases and stricter containment measures.
In hindsight, the likelihood of BNM further slashing the OPR would depend on the economic growth recovery rate in Malaysia. At present, BNM has not hinted in that direction and shared that “recent financial market volatility has somewhat receded, and financial conditions remain supportive of growth”. However, they added that the recovery trajectory in some economies could be disrupted if there was a re-tightening of containment measures. The current interest rate is in line with market consensus as it is sufficient to accommodate the economic recovery as further cuts in interest rates are not likely to help stimulate the economy due to inflationary pressures.
6.2 Statutory Reserve Requirement (SRR) Ratio
BNM had also made the decision to cut the SRR ratio by 100 basis points from 3% to 2% in March 2020 due to the pandemic outbreak to ensure sufficient liquidity in the domestic financial system. A lower SRR generally means that a lower amount would be put away with the central bank, leading to more excess funds from reserves to be used for lending purposes, thus creating credit. Furthermore, each Principal Dealer will be able to recognise MGS/GII issues of up to MYR 1 billion as part of the SRR compliance. In short, BNM expected approximately MYR 30 billion worth of liquidity to be injected into the domestic financial system from the combined measures.
| 7 Conclusion |
All in all, although the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic had dampened the Malaysian economy, the domestic bond market managed to remain resilient as seen from the continuous expansion of the RF BPAM All Bond Index even after experiencing two significant declines in March 2020 and March 2021 as well as the robust MGS/GII supply. In time, Malaysia’s road to recovery is imminent as lockdown measures unwind, thus allowing the economy to run its natural course while the nation adapts to safely coexist with the novel coronavirus.
Source: BPAM: The Road to Recovery of the Malaysian Ringgit Bond Market in View of the COVID-19 Pandemic Response (2021, 12 October. BPAM MARKET AND PRODUCT RESEARCH. Retrieved from https://bpam.com.my/research-files/RSC01
The information provided in this report is of a general nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is not intended to constitute research or as advice for any investor. The information in this report is not and should not be construed or considered as an offer, recommendation or solicitation for investments. Investors are advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and should seek appropriate personalised financial advice from a qualified professional to suit individual circumstances and risk profile.
The information contained in this report is prepared from data believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issuance of this report. While every effort is made to ensure the information is up-to-date and correct, Bond and Sukuk Information Platform Sdn Bhd (“the Company”) does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness of any such information contained in this report and accordingly, neither the Company nor any of its affiliates nor its related persons shall not be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance thereon or usage thereof.
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