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Monetary Policy Statement
Sep 05, 2024
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5 Sep 2024
The global economy continues to expand amid resilient labour markets and continued recovery in global trade. Looking ahead, global growth is expected to be sustained by positive labour market conditions, moderating inflation and less restrictive monetary policy. Global trade recovery is expected to continue, supported by both electrical and electronics (E&E) as well as non-E&E products. The growth outlook remains subject to downside risks, mainly from further escalation of geopolitical tensions, volatility in global financial markets, and slower growth momentum in major economies.
The Malaysian economy expanded by 5.1% in the first half of 2024. The latest indicators point towards sustained strength in economic activity driven by resilient domestic expenditure and higher export activity. Going forward, exports are expected to be further lifted by the global tech upcycle given Malaysia’s position in the semiconductor supply chain, as well as continued strength in non-E&E goods. Tourist spending is expected to continue to increase. Employment and wage growth, as well as policy measures, remaining supportive of household spending. The robust expansion in investment activity would be sustained by the progress of multi-year projects in both the private and public sectors, the implementation of catalytic initiatives under the national master plans, as well as the higher realisation of approved investments. The higher intermediate and capital imports will further support export and investment activity. The growth outlook is subject to downside risks from lower-than-expected external demand and commodity production. Meanwhile, upside risks to growth mainly emanate from greater spillover from the tech upcycle, more robust tourism activity, and faster implementation of investment projects.
Both headline and core inflation averaged 1.8% in the first half of 2024. The spillovers from the diesel price adjustment to broader prices have been contained, given effective mitigation and enforcement measures to minimise the cost impact on businesses. For the year as a whole, average headline and core inflation are expected to remain within the earlier projected ranges and are unlikely to exceed 3%. Nevertheless, the inflation outlook remains highly subject to the implementation of further domestic policy measures. Upside risk to inflation would be dependent on the extent of spillover effects of domestic policy measures on subsidies and price controls to broader price trends, as well as global commodity prices and financial market developments.
The recent recovery in the ringgit is driven by the shift in expectations of lower interest rates in major economies, particularly the US, as well as Malaysia’s strong economic performance. Looking ahead, Malaysia’s positive economic prospects and domestic structural reforms, complemented by ongoing initiatives to encourage flows, will continue to provide enduring support to the ringgit.
At the current OPR level, the monetary policy stance remains supportive of the economy and is consistent with the current assessment of inflation and growth prospects. The MPC remains vigilant to ongoing developments to inform the assessment on the domestic inflation and growth trajectories going into 2025. The MPC will ensure that the monetary policy stance remains conducive to sustainable economic growth amid price stability.
See also: Bank Negara Malaysia
5 September 2024
© Bank Negara Malaysia, 2024. All rights reserved.
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Disclaimer
The information provided in this report is of a general nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is not intended to constitute research or as advice for any investor. The information in this report is not and should not be construed or considered as an offer, recommendation or solicitation for investments. Investors are advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and should seek appropriate personalised financial advice from a qualified professional to suit individual circumstances and risk profile. The information contained in this report is prepared from data believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issuance of this report. While every effort is made to ensure the information is up-to-date and correct, Bond and Sukuk Information Platform Sdn Bhd (“the Company”) does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness of any such information contained in this report and accordingly, neither the Company nor any of its affiliates nor its related persons shall not be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance thereon or usage thereof.
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